Skip to main content

Red Sea Flashpoint: Is War Brewing Between Ethiopia & Eritrea?”

 By   Justin Kirangacha| The Common Pulse/latest news/Ethiopia/Eritrea /US/ Kenya/Abroad/Africa / OCTOBER2025.

Ethiopia Sounds Alarm: “Eritrea Prepping for War”

In a dramatic escalation, Ethiopia has formally accused neighboring Eritrea of colluding with a hard-line faction of the the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to prepare an offensive against Ethiopia.  In a letter to the UN Secretary-General, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos warns that “the hardliner faction of the TPLF and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war.” 
This public charge is one of the sharpest statements yet in months of rising tensions across the Horn of Africa.


Collusion Charge: Eritrea + TPLF, Ethiopia Claims

Addis Ababa alleges that Eritrea is not merely a passive border neighbor but has actively funded, mobilized, and directed armed groups in Ethiopia’s Amhara region  traditionally a flashpoint. The Ethiopian letter states there is “clear collusion” between Asmara and the TPLF.
If true, this would signal a major shift in the alliances behind Ethiopia’s internal conflicts  turning what was once a mostly domestic struggle into a regional confrontation.

 The Red Sea Card: Ethiopia’s Sea Access Ambitions

One of the underlying drivers of this tension is Ethiopia’s long-standing ambition to regain access to the Red Sea. When Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Ethiopia lost its coastline   and since then, successive governments have eyed ports in Eritrea or elsewhere as a path back to the sea. 
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of using this ambition as a pretext to justify “sinister machinations,” essentially painting Ethiopia’s aspiration as a threat to Eritrea’s sovereignty. 
So the accusation isn’t happening in a vacuum  it’s entangled with geopolitics and national pride.

 From Peace Partners to Foes: The 2018 Turnaround

It wasn’t always this bleak. In 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a landmark rapprochement, ending decades of hostility and opening the door for collaboration in trade, diplomacy, and regional stability. 
But since the end of the Tigray War in 2022, relations have cooled fast. The 2018 “Tripartite Agreement” among Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia was seen as a bold gamble to reshape influence in the Horn  but that framework seems to be fraying. 
Now, words of goodwill have given way to suspicions, accusations, and military posturing.

 Regional Ripple Effects: Red Sea, Egypt & the Horn

The stakes go beyond Addis and Asmara. Tension over sea routes, port access, and alliances is already drawing in Egypt, which has its own Nile and Red Sea interests. 
Moreover, instability in the Horn  with Sudan in chaos and Yemen’s Red Sea conflict acting as a wildcard   means that a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could spark broader disorder.
Observers warn: the Red Sea is a chokepoint for global trade. A conflict here isn’t just regional  it’s global.

 Can Diplomacy Still Prevail?

Ethiopia claims it would prefer negotiation over conflict. In its letter, Addis emphasizes a “vision of shared prosperity through integration that preserves the territorial integrity and sovereignty of both states.” 
But talk is cheap when armies are mobilizing. Eritrea hasn’t officially responded yet. 
At the same time, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has in earlier statements ruled out war with Eritrea over Red Sea access, insisting on resolving issues peacefully. 
The question now: will cooler heads hold, or will this spiral into open warfare?

 What Has to Be Watched Closely Now

  • Border troop movements & mobilizations any major deployments could presage escalation

  • Foreign backers & alliances  will Egypt, Djibouti, or other actors take sides?

  • TPLF factional behavior which side of the Tigray divide will align with Eritrea?

  • International mediation can the UN, AU, or IGAD insert themselves effectively?

  • Impact on trade and shipping closure or disruption of Red Sea routes could hit global supply chains

 

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Utah Man, 22, Charged in Killing of Conservative Activist Charlie Kirk

  By Kiranagacha Mwaniki - The Common Pulse - Orem, Utah ;  September 13, 2025 The bustling quad of Utah Valley University was supposed to be a stage for debate and free expression. Instead, it became the scene of political violence that has shocked the nation. Charlie Kirk, 31, a conservative activist and co-founder of Turning Point USA, was fatally shot on September 10 while addressing students at a “Prove Me Wrong” debate. Authorities say the shots came from a nearby rooftop, fired by a young man who had quietly prepared for weeks. On Friday, Utah County officials announced that Tyler James Robinson, 22 , had been taken into custody and charged in connection with Kirk’s killing. He is being held without bail at the Utah County Jail. From Apprentice to Accused Killer Robinson grew up in Washington County, Utah, in what neighbors describe as a quiet household. He worked as an electrical apprentice and once attended Utah State University for a semester in 2021. “He was always ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Former Miss Universe Contestant Tyra Spaulding of Jamaica Found Dead at 26

  By   Mutunga Tobbias | The Common Pulse/latest news/ Kenya/United States/Africa / September 2025    The global pageantry community has been shaken by tragic news coming out of Jamaica. Tyra Spaulding, a former Miss Universe contestant who proudly represented her country on the international stage, has been confirmed dead at the tender age of 26. Her untimely death has sent shockwaves not only through the Caribbean but across the wider world of fashion, beauty, and culture, where she was regarded as one of the rising stars. For a nation that holds its beauty queens close to the heart, the loss is both personal and symbolic. It raises questions about the pressures faced by women in pageantry, the expectations placed on young public figures, and the fragility of life itself. The Rise of Tyra Spaulding in the World of Beauty and Pageantry Tyra Spaulding’s journey into the world of glamour and pageantry began like many others, through small modeling gigs, local com...
Post a Comment
Read more

No Exit: Biya’s Return, Democracy’s Decline

By Kirangacha Mwaniki The Common Pulse | August 2025 At 92 years old, Cameroonian President Paul Biya has signaled his intention to run for yet another term in the 2025 presidential election. Having ruled since 1982, Biya is now the second-longest-serving head of state in the world;  after Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang. His decision has sparked outrage, resignation, and confusion among Cameroonians, many of whom have never known another leader. This re-election bid is more than just a political event;  it is a glaring symptom of a system that has resisted reform, ignored generational change, and weaponized fear to maintain the status quo. The Man Who Time Forgot Paul Biya came to power before most Cameroonians were born. He has led through the Cold War, the rise of mobile phones, the internet revolution, and the African Continental Free Trade Area — all while aging behind the walls of Etoudi Palace. He is rarely seen in public, often ruling from abroad;  mostly Swit...
Post a Comment
Read more