Inside Gachagua’s Mysterious Absence

By   Justin Kirangacha| The Common Pulse/latest news /US/ Kenya/Abroad/Africa / OCTOBER2025.

In a time of national mourning, such events often transcend political difference, offering a moment of unity and closure. When a figure like Gachagua, who was in high office just months ago, stays away or is absent, it sends signals. First, it invites questions about his motivations, whether his absence is deliberate, strategic, or due to a real barrier. Secondly, it hints at deeper rifts or calculation: in the eyes of many, someone in Gachagua’s position could either stand to gain politically by being seen to pay respects or risk losing ground if excluded or seen to be at odds with the national mood. Thirdly, in Kenya’s ethnically and politically charged climate, the absence of a leading politician at such a major event carries interpretative weight, perhaps a tacit message or a symptom of shifting alliances.

The political undercurrents

While on the surface this may look like an odd omission, the deeper context of Gachagua’s own political trajectory sheds more light. He and Raila had been on opposite sides during the 2022 election campaign-period. Gachagua, aligned with Ruto, often criticised what he referred to as older political projects and gave voice to the “hustler nation” narrative. Raila had been the principal figure of the opposition. In short, they were not natural allies. The funeral thus is not just a personal or national event, but inherently political.
After the funeral, there is speculation that part of Gachagua’s calculation may have been: show up and risk being seen as aligning (or re-aligning) with figures in the opposition/Democracy movement, or stay away and maintain his own base’s narrative of independence. The fact that he was recently removed from office via impeachment and faces a contested legal and political position may have reinforced caution. 
Furthermore, his absence might reflect a strategic positioning: by not attending, he avoids being drawn into the symbolism of an event dominated by the “Azimio la Umoja” coalition and Raila’s political network. He might also be signalling to his supporters or opponents that he is not dependent on the networks of the past, that he controls his own narrative.

Broader implications for Kenyan politics

This episode of non-attendance touches on several larger trends in Kenya’s politics. One is the increasing complexity of alliances and realignments. The neat binary of government vs opposition is becoming less stable. Figures like Gachagua, once part of the inner circle of executive power, now find themselves navigating between polarised camps.
Another is the question of how national mourning, state rituals and political symbolism intersect. For Raila’s funeral, state and partisan symbolism were intertwined. Who shows up, who speaks, who is visible becomes part of the narrative. Gachagua’s absence therefore speaks volumes about who is inside the narrative, who is outside, and who is trying to craft their own separate narrative.
There is also an element of risk calculation: for a political actor recently removed from office, attending could pose risks of being visually side-lined, or co-opted into a memory that may not serve his present ambitions. Staying away is in itself a political act.
Additionally, the episode underscores a generational and regional shift. Gachagua’s base in Mt Kenya and his “hustler nation” rhetoric reflect a reconfiguration of Kenyan power-blocs. Raila represented a different era, different alliances, and a certain national identity. Gachagua’s choice may signal the transition or departure from that era.

Criticisms and counterarguments

On the other hand, critics might argue that Gachagua missed an opportunity. A national figure like Raila merits respect beyond party lines, and the absence of a senior leader such as the former Deputy President could be seen as tone-deaf, as disrespectful or as reinforcing divisions rather than healing them. Some may see it as a failure of statesmanship or of unity in a moment of national mourning.
There is also the risk of alienating certain voters or constituencies who expected visible unity. With the politics of Kenya often influenced by symbolism, absence can translate into lost goodwill or wasted optics.
Another counter-point is the argument that the insider explanation, fearing hostility or being sidelined, could also be viewed as over-cautious or lacking courage. If a leader is genuinely national rather than partisan, the funeral of a major national figure would arguably offer a chance to rise above rivalry.

Looking ahead, the decision (or perceived decision) to stay away from the funeral may form part of a broader strategy for Gachagua. It could signal an effort to brand himself as distinct, as independent of both the old opposition and the ruling coalition. Perhaps he is positioning for 2027, where he may aim for higher office or influence, and wants to avoid being tied too closely to Raila’s legacy or the Azimio machinery.
It might also reflect an effort to consolidate his base in Mt Kenya and among those who feel sidelined by national politics or who resent older political figures. By not being at the same event, he may be underlining his difference.
Alternatively, his absence may reflect a desire for caution, as he navigates legal, political and reputational challenges following his impeachment. Staying out of the limelight in this particular instance may protect him from immediate symbolic backlash while he re-tools his next move.

The story that remains untold

Despite the coverage, there are still unanswered questions: what exactly were the “credible intelligence reports” mentioned regarding hostile reception? Did Gachagua’s team actively decide not to attend, or were there internal hurdles or miscommunication? Will he issue a detailed explanation later, and how will the public respond?
Also, how will this absence be recorded in historical memories of Raila’s state funeral? Will it become a footnote, or will it carry symbolic weight for narratives of unity, division and political realignment in Kenya? And crucially, how will Gachagua's own political narrative evolve, will this absence be seen as a smart strategic move, or a missed opportunity of reconciliation and statesmanship?

The absence of Rigathi Gachagua from the funeral and memorial events of Raila Odinga is far more than a simple attendance matter. It is loaded with political significance, symbolic meaning and strategic overtones. In a moment when the nation mourned a towering figure, the decision by one of its former executives to stay away raises questions about alliances, identity, timing and ambition.

Whether viewed as prudent, calculated, disrespectful or visionary, Gachagua’s decision will likely factor into Kenya’s evolving political narrative: one where old coalitions fracture, new leaders emerge, symbol and substance collide, and every public gesture carries weight. For observers of Kenyan politics, the absence may speak louder than many speeches, signalling a phase of change and re-calibration.